Virgin Australia says Sayonara to Cairns Tokyo Haneda flight VA77

The first question that popped into my mind, and I’m sure yours too, when Virgin Australia announced it would start a Cairns Tokyo flight is: “how is that sustainable?”. Well, long story short, it wasn’t. So much so that the airline announced it will be scrapping the route in early 2025.

• When will Virgin Australia stop flying the Cairns to Tokyo Haneda Flight?
• Why did it start this service in the first place?

When will Virgin Australia stop flying the Cairns to Tokyo Haneda Flight VA77?

Although it announced it will be ceasing operations on its only real long-haul service, Virgin Australia will continue to operate its daily service from northern Queensland to Tokyo until February 24th 2025.

Flight VA77 has been operational for just over a year, at the moment of writing this post, however it will soon be history. At least a couple of issues have made this an unviable service for the Aussie carrier:

1. The Japanese Yen has been extremely weak in the post-covid years. This has translated to many less Japanese tourists travelling abroad. Hawaii has suffered this situation and so has Australia. Virgin Australia cites that tourists travelling from Japan to Australia are still 35% below pre-2020 levels. Passengers in the opposite direction are not enough to counterbalance this negative situation.
2. The second reason for flight VA77 not working is that it’s just a wacky way of travelling from Australia’s major cities to Tokyo. Cairns itself generates almost no travel demand to Tokyo, and is just a transit airport for passengers from Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and so on. However, why should you make a stopover in Cairns, of all places, and travel on a tiny 737 MAX 8 all the way to Tokyo when you can find, faster and especially more comfortable options out there.

Passengers booked on the flight after its cancellation have been offered a refund. Virgin Australia will therefore, exit the Australia to Japan flight market. But why did Virgin Australia start this service in the first place?

Why did it start this service in the first place?

Let’s start by talking about Tokyo Haneda Airport. Haneda is Tokyo’s city airport, closest to downtown, while Narita is well out of the city (about 1 hour by train). Between the two airports Haneda is by far the more congested one with many airlines trying to get their hands on precious and difficult to come by slots.

Virgin Australia has held a daily slot at the airport since its initial expansion phase when it was flying across the pacific and to numerous major Asian destinations in the late 2000s and early 2010s. That slot remains in Virgin Australia’s possession to this day. However, the Haneda airport authority imposed that Virgin Australia must use its slot or lose it.

Not owning any ULR capable planes Virgin got creative with its operations. They opted to launch a flight from Cairns to Tokyo, which is just in range for the airlines’ Boeing 737 MAX 8s, hoping to somehow make it work.

The cancelling of VA77 will probably also eventually force Virgin to give up its precious slot in Tokyo Haneda. Being totally honest I don’t even know they will ever need it in the future. The company restructuring has shaped a very domestic focused operation which is unlikely to expand on long-haul anywhere in the near future.